Humanity is still swelling (see: “8 Billion People and Counting”). As some aspects of Western-based cultural and soft power are usurped by more compelling international contenders sporting multi-ethnic-friendly impressions, the Trans-Pacific sphere is reorienting towards Asia in some ways and diversifying regionally in others. Immigration is ongoing; COVID lock-downs prevented some travel, but did virtually nothing to reverse the presence of recently immigrated persons. Like the human-rabbits we all are, people procreate where they currently are, which ultimately results in the
gradual increase of minority populations, the increase of voting rights and representation pressures on local and national governments, and the general perpetuation of what could be considered the internationalization of
populations through exposure to diversity.

Some may find the processes of cultural opening threatening to particular domestic industries and/or local and indigenous people groups, which is itself a valid claim. However, the widespread demographic benefits of cultural diversification are such that they are particularly empowering at the individual level, through the opening up of perspective and shared increases in innovation and cooperative capacity, and far outweigh what must be lost in return. Healthy growth requires adaptation to that which is new, as well as the relinquishing of that which is excessive or has become obsolete. In reality, all parties experience degrees of both gain and loss, but smart planning can asymmetrically weigh the outcomes in positive favor for all participants. Resistance to change is generally always costlier than early adoption.

Demographically, the Trans-Pacific environment is experiencing increases in the strength of non-American actors and their non-US-centric ambitions, many of them doing so in tandem with the reception of US support.

8 Billion People and Counting

There are over 8 billion (8,000,000,000) humans living on Earth. There will be more tomorrow. The ways that this unprecedented level of demographic swelling is affecting the planet is unquestionable. Humans have a difficult time with such large numbers intuitively, so investors should be particularly cautious to consider the scale of proposed projects and investments by companies and governments and whether or not they achieve desirability in proportion to the total number of people they serve. Some issues have been historically prominent because the voices that carried the day were particularly loud, privileged, or advantaged, but as the demographic makeup of human civilization shifts and adjusts in its swell, so will the most important conversations being had.

All parties should consider how swelling demographic groups will change the priorities of public and civic discourse. Where once right-leaning protectionists or White Evangelicals may have been able to steer the conversation, moderate Muslims might soon hold much greater voting sway, and other priorities will need to be considered in major public outlays as well as commercial operations. Growing numbers can be very deceptive until the moment that they take over the leader.

A massive and growing human population is also a perfect indicator of the scale of the environmental problem at hand. Until humanity achieves a more eco-conscious and eco-friendly mode of existence, predominantly through our energy-use system, we are accelerating towards our inhospitable planetary demise. The planet doesn’t, and won’t, care. Growth and even further concentration of populations in coastal urban areas will result in greater fatality levels from natural disasters and growing pressure to decarbonize and achieve manageable levels of environmental degradation. The growing population will continue to press the issue of eco-sustainability harder with each passing day. We strongly encourage investors to scrutinize the ESG measures of companies they are interested in, as well as in their own daily behavior, so they are not overly exacerbating planetary destruction.

Competing Interests

As demographics continue to shift around the Tran-Pacific, new opportunities emerge. For example, the last time the Asian environment was wholly reordered, (following the second World War and resulting in a sprawling, pixelated tapestry of American bases and outposts “guiding” the process) the global economic system extending through Asia was created and managed in a Western-forward architecture and ideology. Now, as rising local powers, like Vietnam and Indonesia, begin to vie for competitive position with other local heavyweight, like the PRC, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, non-US interests are starting to pull their demographic weight and outweigh US-based interests. The future of Asia will be much more heavily designed by Asian nations and peoples than was their most recent era; and those nations and peoples are diverse!

Regional control over regional matters is a good thing as long as everyone is happy. There is no reason this transition is intrinsically threatening. However, once-US-led initiatives undoubtedly give way to more ASEAN-led and PRC-led programs, a greater plurality of opinions will be participating in the decision-making process. Herein, demographic plurality may pose some stunting problems, but that doesn’t have to be the case. If differences in local or regional ideologies, now un-fixed on the formerly-obligatory US-centric perspective, can coalesce around the shared concerns of economic prosperity through ecological sustainability, a path forward can surely be found through cooperative effort from each participating demographic.

Communism, Islam, and Trans-Pacific Diversity

Rapidly growing regional demographics throughout SEA, such as the Muslim community, will produce fantastic opportunities for innovative capitalists ready and capable of expanding rapidly enough to accommodate the demographic swelling. Since the tastes and consumer preferences of Muslim communities generally have significant variances to comparable Western ones, emergent Muslim urban centers throughout SEA with spend-happy consumers hopped up on rising incomes will reap huge profits for the capitalists who can beat the major foreign multinationals to market with locally-demanded consumer goods.

Communism, ever the Western antagonist, is alive and well in Asia, though it doesn’t exist as it is typically perceived by ignorant Westerners who speak with loud voices about matters of which they understand little. Without wading into political philosophy, the idea is relevant to TPDEARR analysis because it represents a powerful unifying cause, such as in the goodwill it inherently cultivates between the PRC and its southern neighbor Vietnam, and also because it indicates the authenticity of intent regarding State-related matters, particularly intervention in private and public market affairs. Not only is Xi legitimately capable of using the levers of State at his disposal to “guide”/disrupt market activity (unlike in the stubbornly free market system surrounding, say, President Biden), but the intentions and manner of those market disruptions are delineated by the guiding hand of the CCP, which Xi also happens to control with ever-greater efficacy. Commercial and “free” market behaviors which threaten or impede the CCP and China’s ability to explore “socialism with Chinese characteristics” throughout the Asian region will likely produce so much friction that they will not be financially viable for long. Investors would be wise to always remember this.

The diversity in the Asian region of the Trans-Pacific is complex, and ever-shifting, but humans everywhere share the want for increases in quality of life, so there will always be common ground available to the innovative capitalists who find it. Navigating the plurality of ethnic interests in the region will be key to maintaining economic sustainability.